# Basic Probability And Applications STAT 516, Spring 2008

## Professor: Mark Daniel Ward Email: mdw@purdue.edu Office: MATH 540 Phone: 765-496-9563 Office hours: MWF, 1:30 -- 2:20 PM, in MATH 540

Text: A First Course in Probability, 7th edition, by Sheldon Ross (ISBN: 9780131856622)

Corequisite: MATH 261, or equivalent

Course description: A first course in probability, intended to serve as a background for statistics and other applications. Sample spaces and axioms of probability, discrete and continuous random variables, conditional probability and Bayes' theorem, joint and conditional probability distributions, expectations, moments and moment generating functions, law of large numbers, and central limit theorem. (The probability material in course one of the Society of Actuaries and the Casualty Actuarial Society is covered by this course.)

Midterm exam dates: Friday, February 1; Friday, March 7; Friday, April 18

Final exam date/time/location: Monday, April 28, 8 AM - 10 AM, REC 108

Plan to be present at all exams. Plan to be present for class every day.

Midterm answers: Midterm exam answers will be posted here (in pdf format) after each midterm exam has been graded.

Homework: All assigned homework problems are posted in the calendar grid below. Homework will not be collected during the course. Homework solutions will be posted by the instructor here (in pdf format).

HW #1, due Monday, January 14: Chapter 1--problems: 7, 9, 10, 15, 19, 22, 28, 30, 31, 32, 33a; theoretical exercises: 5, 6, 13, 20, 21, 23; self-test problem 14 (I want you to find a solution without a summation in the answer; Ross's answer in the back of the book uses a summation, but there is a simpler solution without using a summation at all)

HW #2, due Wednesday, January 23: Chapter 2--problems: 2, 13, 15, 22, 27, 28, 32, 35, 38, 40, 42, 43, 45, 53; theoretical exercises: 5, 11, 15, 16, 19, 20

HW #3, due Wednesday, January 30: Chapter 3--problems: 4, 6, 14b, 16, 24, 30, 32, 37, 40, 44, 53, 56, 65, 67, 73, 74, 77, 84; theoretical exercises: 6, 7, 11

HW #4, due Monday, February 18: Chapter 4--problems: 4, 11a, 14, 19, 21, 22, 28, 30, 37, 38, 44, 46, 52, 54, 58, 59, 72, 73, 75, 78, 79; theoretical exercises: 4, 5, 6, 10, 27, 30a, 35

HW #5, due Wednesday, March 5: Chapter 5--problems: 2, 3, 5, 6, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20, 23, 25, 26, 28, 32, 33, 37, 39, 40; theoretical exercises: 2, 6, 8, 12, 13, 14, 18

HW #6, due Wednesday, April 2: Chapter 6--problems: 2, 3, 5, 6, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20, 23, 25, 26, 28, 32, 33, 37, 39, 40, 41, 54a, 57; theoretical exercises: 2, 5, 6, 9, 10, 14, 15, 18

HW #7, due Wednesday, April 16: Chapter 7--problems: 3, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 19, 26, 34, 36, 38, 40, 42, 48, 50, 53, 56, 58; theoretical exercises: 5, 9, 19, 22, 33, 34

HW #8, due Friday, April 25: Chapter 8--problems: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 14, 15

Grades: All grades will be posted on Blackboard Vista, so that students can confidentially view their own grades.

Grade Distribution: Each midterm exam counts as 20 percent of the overall grade. The final exam counts as 40 percent of the overall grade.

Academic honesty: All students are expected to abide by Purdue's Student Conduct Code. Academic dishonesty of any type will result in a failing "F" course grade, as well as other consequences deemed appropriate by the Office of the Dean of Students.

Attendance: Makeup exams may be given in only rare cases, such as: the death of a family member; religious (or similar) observances; or mandatory attendance at an official Purdue event. Please contact the Dr. Ward at least one week in advance of any planned events.

Calculators: The list of approved calculators can be found at:
http://www.soa.org/education/course-catalog/fall-exam-session/2007/edu-calculators.aspx
The list includes ONLY the models:
"the battery or solar-powered Texas Instruments BA-35 model calculator, the BA II Plus*, the BA II Plus Professional*, the TI-30Xa or TI-30X II*, (IIS solar or IIB battery)"
* The memory of TI-30X II (IIS solar or IIB battery), BA II Plus and BA II Plus Professional will need to be cleared by the examination supervisor upon the candidates' entrance to the examination room. For the BA II Plus and BA II Plus Professional, clearing will reset the calculator to the factory default settings.

Table for Exams: The midterm exams and the final exam will both include the Actuary Exam P/1 table of information found at this address: http://www.soa.org/files/pdf/P-05-05tables.pdf

Academic adjustments: Please refer all cases to the Office of the Dean of Students in Schleman Hall.

Nondiscrimination: Purdue University prohibits discrimination against any member of the University community on the basis of race, religion, color, sex, age, national origin or ancestry, marital status, parental status, sexual orientation, disability, or status as a veteran. Dr. Ward intends for STAT/MA 516 to be welcoming and fair for all students.

 Week 1: Mon, Jan 7 Lecture: Sections 1.2, 1.3, 1.4 HW #1 assigned Wed, Jan 9 Lecture: Sections 1.4, 1.5 Fri, Jan 11 Lecture: Section 1.6 Week 2: Mon, Jan 14 Lecture: Sections 2.2, 2.3 HW #1 due HW #2 assigned Wed, Jan 16 Lecture: Sections 2.4, 2.5 Fri, Jan 18 Class cancelled. Download the handout. Week 3: Mon, Jan 21 (no lecture) Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., Day Wed, Jan 23 Lecture: Section 3.2 HW #2 due HW #3 assigned Fri, Jan 25 Lecture: Section 3.3 Week 4: Mon, Jan 28 Lecture: Sections 3.3, 3.4 Wed, Jan 30 Lecture: Sections 3.4, 3.5 HW #3 due Fri, Feb 1 Midterm Exam 1 Week 5: Mon, Feb 4 Lecture: Sections 4.1, 4.2 HW #4 assigned Wed, Feb 6 Lecture: Section 4.3 Fri, Feb 8 Lecture: Sections 4.4, 4.5, 4.6 Week 6: Mon, Feb 11 Lecture: Sections 4.6, 4.7 Wed, Feb 13 Lecture: Sections 4.7, 4.8 Fri, Feb 15 Class cancelled. Week 7: Mon, Feb 18 Lecture: 4.8, 4.9 HW #4 due Wed, Feb 20 Lecture: 5.1 HW #5 assigned Fri, Feb 22 Lecture: 5.2 Week 8: Mon, Feb 25 Lecture: 5.3 Wed, Feb 27 Lecture: 5.4 Fri, Feb 29 Lecture: 5.4, 5.5 Week 9: Mon, Mar 3 Lecture: 5.5, 5.7 (skip 5.6) Wed, Mar 5 In-class review HW #5 due Fri, Mar 7 Midterm Exam 2 Spring Break: Mon, Mar 10 (no lecture) Wed, Mar 12 (no lecture) Fri, Mar 14 (no lecture) Week 10: Mon, Mar 17 Lecture: 6.1 Wed, Mar 19 Lecture 6.1 HW #6 assigned Fri, Mar 21 Lecture 6.2 Week 11: Mon, Mar 24 Lecture 6.2 Wed, Mar 26 Lecture 6.3 Fri, Mar 28 Lecture 6.4, 6.5 Week 12: Mon, Mar 31 Lecture 6.5, 6.7 Wed, Apr 2 Lecture 6.7, 7.1, 7.2 HW #6 due Fri, Apr 4 Lecture 7.2 Week 13: Mon, Apr 7 Lecture 7.2, 7.3 HW #7 assigned Wed, Apr 9 Lecture 7.4 Fri, Apr 11 Lecture 7.5 Week 14: Mon, Apr 14 Lecture 7.5 Wed, Apr 16 Lecture 7.5 HW #7 due Fri, Apr 18 Midterm Exam 3 Week 15: Mon, Apr 21 Lecture 8.1, 8.2, 8.3 HW #8 assigned Wed, Apr 23 Lecture 8.3, 8.4 Fri, Apr 25 Review for Final Exam HW #8 due Final exam: Monday, April 28, 8 AM - 10 AM, REC 108 Topics: Chapters 1 - 8 (comprehensive)