Basic Probability And Applications
STAT 516, Spring 2008

MWF, 11:30 AM -- 12:20 PM, in REC 307

Professor: Mark Daniel Ward
Email: mdw@purdue.edu
Office: MATH 540
Phone: 765-496-9563
Office hours: MWF, 1:30 -- 2:20 PM, in MATH 540

Text: A First Course in Probability, 7th edition, by Sheldon Ross (ISBN: 9780131856622)

Corequisite: MATH 261, or equivalent

Course description: A first course in probability, intended to serve as a background for statistics and other applications. Sample spaces and axioms of probability, discrete and continuous random variables, conditional probability and Bayes' theorem, joint and conditional probability distributions, expectations, moments and moment generating functions, law of large numbers, and central limit theorem. (The probability material in course one of the Society of Actuaries and the Casualty Actuarial Society is covered by this course.)

Midterm exam dates: Friday, February 1; Friday, March 7; Friday, April 18

Final exam date/time/location: Monday, April 28, 8 AM - 10 AM, REC 108

Plan to be present at all exams. Plan to be present for class every day.

Midterm answers: Midterm exam answers will be posted here (in pdf format) after each midterm exam has been graded.

Midterm answers:
click here for Midterm 1 answers in pdf format

click here for Midterm 2 answers in pdf format

click here for Midterm 3 answers in pdf format

Homework: All assigned homework problems are posted in the calendar grid below. Homework will not be collected during the course. Homework solutions will be posted by the instructor here (in pdf format).

HW #1, due Monday, January 14: Chapter 1--problems: 7, 9, 10, 15, 19, 22, 28, 30, 31, 32, 33a; theoretical exercises: 5, 6, 13, 20, 21, 23; self-test problem 14 (I want you to find a solution without a summation in the answer; Ross's answer in the back of the book uses a summation, but there is a simpler solution without using a summation at all)
click here for Homework 1 answers in pdf format

HW #2, due Wednesday, January 23: Chapter 2--problems: 2, 13, 15, 22, 27, 28, 32, 35, 38, 40, 42, 43, 45, 53; theoretical exercises: 5, 11, 15, 16, 19, 20
click here for Homework 2 answers in pdf format

HW #3, due Wednesday, January 30: Chapter 3--problems: 4, 6, 14b, 16, 24, 30, 32, 37, 40, 44, 53, 56, 65, 67, 73, 74, 77, 84; theoretical exercises: 6, 7, 11
click here for Homework 3 answers in pdf format

HW #4, due Monday, February 18: Chapter 4--problems: 4, 11a, 14, 19, 21, 22, 28, 30, 37, 38, 44, 46, 52, 54, 58, 59, 72, 73, 75, 78, 79; theoretical exercises: 4, 5, 6, 10, 27, 30a, 35
click here for Homework 4 answers in pdf format

HW #5, due Wednesday, March 5: Chapter 5--problems: 2, 3, 5, 6, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20, 23, 25, 26, 28, 32, 33, 37, 39, 40; theoretical exercises: 2, 6, 8, 12, 13, 14, 18
click here for Homework 5 answers in pdf format

HW #6, due Wednesday, April 2: Chapter 6--problems: 2, 3, 5, 6, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20, 23, 25, 26, 28, 32, 33, 37, 39, 40, 41, 54a, 57; theoretical exercises: 2, 5, 6, 9, 10, 14, 15, 18
click here for Homework 6 answers in pdf format

HW #7, due Wednesday, April 16: Chapter 7--problems: 3, 8, 9, 11, 12, 13, 19, 26, 34, 36, 38, 40, 42, 48, 50, 53, 56, 58; theoretical exercises: 5, 9, 19, 22, 33, 34
click here for Homework 7 answers in pdf format

HW #8, due Friday, April 25: Chapter 8--problems: 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 14, 15
click here for Homework 8 answers in pdf format


Grades: All grades will be posted on Blackboard Vista, so that students can confidentially view their own grades.

Grade Distribution: Each midterm exam counts as 20 percent of the overall grade. The final exam counts as 40 percent of the overall grade.

Academic honesty: All students are expected to abide by Purdue's Student Conduct Code. Academic dishonesty of any type will result in a failing "F" course grade, as well as other consequences deemed appropriate by the Office of the Dean of Students.

Attendance: Makeup exams may be given in only rare cases, such as: the death of a family member; religious (or similar) observances; or mandatory attendance at an official Purdue event. Please contact the Dr. Ward at least one week in advance of any planned events.

Calculators: The list of approved calculators can be found at:
http://www.soa.org/education/course-catalog/fall-exam-session/2007/edu-calculators.aspx
The list includes ONLY the models:
"the battery or solar-powered Texas Instruments BA-35 model calculator, the BA II Plus*, the BA II Plus Professional*, the TI-30Xa or TI-30X II*, (IIS solar or IIB battery)"
* The memory of TI-30X II (IIS solar or IIB battery), BA II Plus and BA II Plus Professional will need to be cleared by the examination supervisor upon the candidates' entrance to the examination room. For the BA II Plus and BA II Plus Professional, clearing will reset the calculator to the factory default settings.

Table for Exams: The midterm exams and the final exam will both include the Actuary Exam P/1 table of information found at this address: http://www.soa.org/files/pdf/P-05-05tables.pdf

Academic adjustments: Please refer all cases to the Office of the Dean of Students in Schleman Hall.

Nondiscrimination: Purdue University prohibits discrimination against any member of the University community on the basis of race, religion, color, sex, age, national origin or ancestry, marital status, parental status, sexual orientation, disability, or status as a veteran. Dr. Ward intends for STAT/MA 516 to be welcoming and fair for all students.

Outline of Topics
Week 1: Mon, Jan 7
Lecture: Sections 1.2, 1.3, 1.4
HW #1 assigned
Wed, Jan 9
Lecture: Sections 1.4, 1.5
Fri, Jan 11
Lecture: Section 1.6
Week 2: Mon, Jan 14
Lecture: Sections 2.2, 2.3
HW #1 due
HW #2 assigned
Wed, Jan 16
Lecture: Sections 2.4, 2.5
Fri, Jan 18
Class cancelled.
Download the handout.
Week 3: Mon, Jan 21 (no lecture)
Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., Day
Wed, Jan 23
Lecture: Section 3.2
HW #2 due
HW #3 assigned
Fri, Jan 25
Lecture: Section 3.3
Week 4: Mon, Jan 28
Lecture: Sections 3.3, 3.4
Wed, Jan 30
Lecture: Sections 3.4, 3.5
HW #3 due
Fri, Feb 1
Midterm Exam 1
Week 5: Mon, Feb 4
Lecture: Sections 4.1, 4.2
HW #4 assigned
Wed, Feb 6
Lecture: Section 4.3
Fri, Feb 8
Lecture: Sections 4.4, 4.5, 4.6
Week 6: Mon, Feb 11
Lecture: Sections 4.6, 4.7
Wed, Feb 13
Lecture: Sections 4.7, 4.8
Fri, Feb 15
Class cancelled.
Week 7: Mon, Feb 18
Lecture: 4.8, 4.9
HW #4 due
Wed, Feb 20
Lecture: 5.1
HW #5 assigned
Fri, Feb 22
Lecture: 5.2
Week 8: Mon, Feb 25
Lecture: 5.3
Wed, Feb 27
Lecture: 5.4
Fri, Feb 29
Lecture: 5.4, 5.5
Week 9: Mon, Mar 3
Lecture: 5.5, 5.7 (skip 5.6)
Wed, Mar 5
In-class review
HW #5 due
Fri, Mar 7
Midterm Exam 2
Spring Break: Mon, Mar 10 (no lecture) Wed, Mar 12 (no lecture) Fri, Mar 14 (no lecture)
Week 10: Mon, Mar 17
Lecture: 6.1
Wed, Mar 19
Lecture 6.1
HW #6 assigned
Fri, Mar 21
Lecture 6.2
Week 11: Mon, Mar 24
Lecture 6.2
Wed, Mar 26
Lecture 6.3
Fri, Mar 28
Lecture 6.4, 6.5
Week 12: Mon, Mar 31
Lecture 6.5, 6.7
Wed, Apr 2
Lecture 6.7, 7.1, 7.2
HW #6 due
Fri, Apr 4
Lecture 7.2
Week 13: Mon, Apr 7
Lecture 7.2, 7.3
HW #7 assigned
Wed, Apr 9
Lecture 7.4
Fri, Apr 11
Lecture 7.5
Week 14: Mon, Apr 14
Lecture 7.5
Wed, Apr 16
Lecture 7.5
HW #7 due
Fri, Apr 18
Midterm Exam 3
Week 15: Mon, Apr 21
Lecture 8.1, 8.2, 8.3
HW #8 assigned
Wed, Apr 23
Lecture 8.3, 8.4
Fri, Apr 25
Review for Final Exam
HW #8 due
Final exam: Monday, April 28, 8 AM - 10 AM, REC 108
Topics: Chapters 1 - 8 (comprehensive)