Probability
STAT/MA 416, Fall 2007

Tuesdays and Thursdays
416-01-01: 9:00 -- 10:15 AM in REC 114
416-02-01: 3:00 -- 4:15 PM in UNIV 203

Professor: Mark Daniel Ward
Email: mdw@purdue.edu
Office hours:
Tuesdays: 8:00 -- 9:00 AM and 2:00 -- 3:00 PM in MATH 540
Thursdays: 8:00 -- 9:00 AM and 2:00 -- 3:00 PM in MATH 540
Exception to Office Hours:
On each day when homework is due,
the 8:00 AM -- 9:00 AM office hour is relocated to MATH 211,
so that more space is available for students to attend!

TA/Grader: Luis Barboza
Email: lbarboza@stat.purdue.edu
Office hours:
Monday: 3:30 -- 5:30 PM in MATH G132
Wednesday: 3:30 -- 4:20 PM and 5:30 -- 6:30 PM in MATH G132

Text: A First Course in Probability, 7th edition, by Sheldon Ross (ISBN: 9780131856622)

Alternate texts:
An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Volume I, 3rd (revised) edition, by William Feller (ISBN: 9780471257080)
An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Volume II, 2nd edition, by William Feller (ISBN: 9780471257097)
Introduction to Probability Theory, by Paul G. Hoel, Sidney C. Port, and Charles J. Stone (ISBN: 9780395046364)

Corequisite: MATH 174, MATH 261, or equivalent

Course description: An introduction to mathematical probability suitable as preparation for actuarial science, statistical theory, and mathematical modeling. General probability rules, conditional probability and Bayes theorem, discrete and continuous random variables, moments and moment generating functions, joint and conditional distributions, standard discrete and continuous distributions and their properties, law of large numbers and central limit theorem. Credit cannot be given for more than one of STAT 225, 311, or 416.

Dr. Ward's Office location: MATH 540
Dr. Ward's Office phone: 765-496-9563
Dr. Ward's Office hours: Tuesdays and Thursdays, 8:00 -- 9:00 AM and 2:00 -- 3:00 PM
Exception to Office Hours: On each day when homework is due, the 8:00 AM -- 9:00 AM office hour is relocated to MATH 211, so that more space is available for students to attend!

Luis' Office location: MATH G132
Luis' Office phone: 765-496-2701
Luis' Office hours: Mondays, 3:30 -- 5:30 PM; also Wednesdays, 3:30 -- 4:20 PM and 5:30 -- 6:30 PM

Midterm exam dates: Tuesday, September 18; Thursday, October 18; Monday, November 19
Midterm exam times: 7 PM to 8:15 PM
Midterm exam locations: All three midterm exams take place in ME 161.

The midterm exams and the final exam will be common among all STAT/MA 416 students.
Plan to be present at all exams. Plan to be present for class every day.

Midterm answers:
click here for Midterm 1 answers in pdf format

click here for Midterm 2 answers in pdf format

click here for Midterm 3 answers in pdf format

Homework: All homework is due at the start of class on the due date. Homework 7 has a special due date, as described below.

HW #1, due Tuesday, August 28: Chapter 1--problems: 5, 9, 10, 15, 16, 19, 22, 24, 28, 31, 32, 33a; theoretical exercises: 5, 6, 17, 20, 21, 23; self-test problems and exercises: 14 (find a solution without a summation)
click here for Homework 1 answers in pdf format

HW #2, due Tuesday, September 4: Chapter 2--problems: 2, 3, 7, 12, 15, 19, 21, 22, 23, 25, 28, 32, 35, 38, 40, 42, 43, 45, 53, 56; theoretical exercises: 15, 19, 20
click here for Homework 2 answers in pdf format

HW #3, due Thursday, September 13: Chapter 3--problems: 4, 5, 9, 14a, 16, 19, 22, 23, 30, 34, 37, 43, 44, 47, 48, 51, 53, 56, 65, 67c, 70, 73, 74, 77, 84, 85; theoretical exercise: 11
click here for Homework 3 answers in pdf format

HW #4, due Thursday, September 27: Chapter 4--problems: 2, 4, 6, 8, 14, 18, 19, 21, 22, 28, 30, 33, 36, 37, 38, 44, 46, 52, 54, 58, 59, 64, 72, 73, 75, 78, 79
click here for Homework 4 answers in pdf format

HW #5, due Tuesday, October 16: Chapter 5--problems: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20, 21, 23, 25, 26, 28, 32, 33, 34, 37, 39, 40
click here for Homework 5 answers in pdf format

HW #6, due Thursday, November 15: Chapter 6--problems 2a, 3a, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14, 19, 20, 23, 27, 28, 31, 32, 33, 34, 38, 41, 43, 49, 54, 57 and also Chapter 7--problems 5, 7, 9, 11, 12, 13
click here for Homework 6 answers in pdf format

HW #7, due Friday, December 7, by 4:30 PM in Dr. Ward's office: Chapter 7--problems 34, 36, 38, 40, 42, 48, 50, 53, 56, 58, 75 and also Chapter 8--problems 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 14, 15
click here for Homework 7 answers in pdf format

Grades: All grades will be posted on Blackboard Vista, so that students can confidentially view their own grades.

Grade Distribution: Each midterm exam counts as 18 percent of the overall grade. The final exam counts as 36 percent of the overall grade. The homework counts as 15 percent of the overall grade. So a total of 18 + 18 + 18 + 36 + 15 = 105 percent is possible in the course!

Attendance: Makeup exams may be given in only rare cases, such as: the death of a family member; religious (or similar) observances; or mandatory attendance at an official Purdue event. Please contact the professor at least one week in advance for Purdue scheduled events.

Calculators: The list of approved calculators can be found at:
http://www.soa.org/education/course-catalog/fall-exam-session/2007/edu-calculators.aspx
The list includes ONLY the models:
"the battery or solar-powered Texas Instruments BA-35 model calculator, the BA II Plus*, the BA II Plus Professional*, the TI-30Xa or TI-30X II*, (IIS solar or IIB battery)"
* The memory of TI-30X II (IIS solar or IIB battery), BA II Plus and BA II Plus Professional will need to be cleared by the examination supervisor upon the candidates' entrance to the examination room. For the BA II Plus and BA II Plus Professional, clearing will reset the calculator to the factory default settings.

Table for Exams: The midterm exams and the final exam will both include the Actuary Exam P/1 table of information found at this address: http://www.soa.org/files/pdf/P-05-05tables.pdf

Academic adjustments: Please refer all cases to the Office of the Dean of Students in Schleman Hall.

Nondiscrimination: Purdue University prohibits discrimination against any member of the University community on the basis of race, religion, color, sex, age, national origin or ancestry, marital status, parental status, sexual orientation, disability, or status as a veteran. Dr. Ward intends for STAT/MA 416 to be welcoming and fair for all students.

Outline of Topics
Week 1: Tues, Aug 21
Lecture: Sections 1.2, 1.3, 1.4
HW #1 assigned
Thurs, Aug 23
Lecture: Sections 1.5, 1.6, 2.2
Week 2: Tues, Aug 28
Lecture: 2.2, 2.3, 2.4, 2.5
HW #1 due
HW #2 assigned
Thurs, Aug 30
Lecture: 2.5, 3.2, 3.3
Week 3: Tues, Sept 4
Lecture: 3.3
HW #2 due
HW #3 assigned
Thurs, Sept 6
Lecture: 3.3, 3.4
Week 4: Tues, Sept 11
Lecture: 3.5, 4.1
Thurs, Sept 13
Lecture: 4.2, 4.3, 4.4
HW #3 due
HW #4 assigned
Week 5: Tues, Sept 18
Review in class
Midterm Exam 1: 7:00 -- 8:15 PM in ME 161
Topics: Chapters 1, 2, 3
Thurs, Sept 20
Lecture: 4.5, 4.6, 4.7
Week 6: Tues, Sept 25
Lecture: 4.8, 4.9
Thurs, Sept 27
Lecture: 5.1, 5.2
HW #4 due
HW #5 assigned
Week 7: Tues, Oct 2
Lecture: 5.2, 5.3, 5.4
Thurs, Oct 4
Lecture: 5.4
Week 8: Tues, Oct 9
October break (no class)
Thurs, Oct 11
Lecture: 5.5, 5.7
Week 9: Tues, Oct 16
Lecture: 6.1
HW #5 due
Thurs, Oct 18
Review in class
Midterm Exam 2: 7:00 -- 8:15 PM in ME 161
Topics: Chapters 4, 5
Week 10: Tues, Oct 23
Lecture: 6.1, 6.2
Thurs, Oct 25
Lecture: 6.2
Week 11: Tues, Oct 30
Lecture: 6.3
HW #6 assigned
class evaluations
class pictures
candy for Halloween
Thurs, Nov 1
Lecture: 6.4, 6.5
Week 12: Tues, Nov 6
Lecture: 6.7
Thurs, Nov 8
Lecture: 7.1, 7.2
Week 13: Tues, Nov 13
Lecture: 7.3
Thurs, Nov 15
Lecture: 7.4
HW #6 due
Week 14: class on Tuesday (Nov 20) is cancelled

Midterm Exam 3
is MONDAY,
November 19, 7:00 -- 8:15 PM in ME 161
Topics: Chapters 6, 7.1-7.4
Thurs, Nov 22
Thanksgiving vacation (no class)
Week 15: Tues, Nov 27
Lecture: 7.5
HW #7 assigned
Thurs, Nov 29
Lecture: 7.7, 8.2, 8.3
Week 16: Tues, Dec 4
Lecture: 8.3, 8.4
Thurs, Dec 6
Review (in class)
HW #7 due at 4:30 PM on Friday, Dec 7
Final Exam: Wednesday, December 12, 10:20 AM -- 12:20 PM
Location: WTHR 104 (Wetherill Laboratory of Chemistry, room 104)
Topics: Chapters 1 - 8 (comprehensive)