Purdue U.Dept. of Statistics
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Special Colloquia, Department of Statistics

Thursday, February 14, 2002
4:30 PM in MATH 175

Mr. Tonglin Zhang
University of Michigan

will speak on

Credible and Confidence Sets for Restricted Parameter Spaces

Abstract


Recent experiments in high energy physics have sparked interest in problems where a parameter is restricted to a portion of its natural range-for example, a positive normal mean or a Poisson mean that is known to exceed some background level. A recent article has shown that the Bayesian credible intervals that arise when the parameter is given a uniform distribution over the restricted range have good frequentist coverage probabilities.

Classical confidence intervals for the ratio of variance components can degenerate to a single point with positive probability, leaving no allowance for error. An alternative method is considered which avoids this problem, but maintains the frequentist coverage probability. The alternative intervals are then compared to Bayesian credible intervals, derived from a non-informative prior; and the Bayesian intervals are shown to have quite high frequentist coverage probabilities.

Refreshments will be available in MATH Library at 4:15 p.m.



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