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Thursday, February 14, 2002 4:30 PM in MATH 175 Mr. Tonglin Zhang University of Michigan will speak on Credible and Confidence Sets for Restricted Parameter Spaces Abstract Recent experiments in high energy physics have sparked interest in problems where a parameter is restricted to a portion of its natural range-for example, a positive normal mean or a Poisson mean that is known to exceed some background level. A recent article has shown that the Bayesian credible intervals that arise when the parameter is given a uniform distribution over the restricted range have good frequentist coverage probabilities. Classical confidence intervals for the ratio of variance components can degenerate to a single point with positive probability, leaving no allowance for error. An alternative method is considered which avoids this problem, but maintains the frequentist coverage probability. The alternative intervals are then compared to Bayesian credible intervals, derived from a non-informative prior; and the Bayesian intervals are shown to have quite high frequentist coverage probabilities.
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