Thursday, November 5, 2009
04:30 PM in MATH 175
Glenn Shafer
Board of Governors Professor at the Rutgers Business School–Newark and New Brunswick and Professor in the Computer Learning Research Centre, Royal Holloway College University of London

Three Betting Interpretations of Probability

Abstract

There are three important ways of interpreting the betting odds given by probabilities:
  1. The classical interpretation: they are the correct odds.
  2. The subjective interpretation: they are your odds.
  3. The Ville interpretation: a betting strategy that uses them will not multiply the capital risked by a large factor.
The Ville interpretation clarifies the domain of application of Bayesian conditioning and extends to Walley's upper and lower probabilities and to Dempster-Shafer belief functions.

Refreshments will be served at 4:00 PM in HAAS 111.